{
  "version": 1,
  "reviewed_at": "2026-09-09T17:26:13Z",
  "products": [
    {
      "id": "claude-code",
      "name": "Claude Code / Sonnet 4.6",
      "company": "anthropic",
      "stage": "Paid product",
      "source": "sonnet46-launch",
      "summary": "Coding-agent workflows attempt multi-step repository work. API model prices below are distinct from the product subscription.",
      "observations": [
        "claude-code-input-price-baseline",
        "claude-code-output-price-baseline"
      ],
      "gap": "Comparable task success, intervention cost and independently measured hours saved."
    },
    {
      "id": "codex",
      "name": "OpenAI Codex / GPT-5.3-Codex",
      "company": "openai",
      "stage": "Paid product",
      "source": "codex53-pricing",
      "summary": "Coding-agent workflows attempt multi-step repository work. API model prices below are distinct from the product subscription.",
      "observations": [
        "codex-input-price-baseline",
        "codex-output-price-baseline"
      ],
      "gap": "Comparable task success, intervention cost and independently measured hours saved."
    },
    {
      "id": "chatgpt-agent",
      "name": "ChatGPT agent / Operator lineage",
      "company": "openai",
      "stage": "Paid product",
      "source": "chatgpt-agent-product",
      "summary": "Browser, research and action tools combine in a multi-step agent. User confirmations and oversight remain part of deployment. This launch record is not an estimate of work displaced.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Primary paid usage, task success under a named evaluation, and reproducible hours-saved methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "gemini-agent",
      "name": "Gemini Agent / Antigravity",
      "company": "alphabet",
      "stage": "Paid product",
      "source": "gemini-agent-product",
      "summary": "Google introduced Gemini Agent for Ultra subscribers and Antigravity for agentic development. Availability and product lineage do not establish customer productivity.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Primary paid usage, task success under a named evaluation, and reproducible hours-saved methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "github-copilot",
      "name": "GitHub Copilot cloud agent",
      "company": "microsoft",
      "stage": "Paid product",
      "source": "github-copilot-product",
      "summary": "Assigns repository work to an agent and returns changes for review. This differs from a count of active paid seats or measured engineering hours saved.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Primary paid usage, task success under a named evaluation, and reproducible hours-saved methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "cursor",
      "name": "Cursor",
      "company": "spacex",
      "stage": "Paid product",
      "source": "cursor-product",
      "summary": "Coding agents work in editor, terminal and cloud environments. The company site identifies Cursor as part of SpaceX; interface examples are not adoption statistics.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Primary paid usage, task success under a named evaluation, and reproducible hours-saved methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "devin",
      "name": "Devin",
      "company": "cognition",
      "stage": "Paid product",
      "source": "devin-product",
      "summary": "Agent environment can write, run and test code with developer review. Vendor task-duration heuristics are not measured hours displaced.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Primary paid usage, task success under a named evaluation, and reproducible hours-saved methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "windsurf",
      "name": "Windsurf / Cascade → Devin Desktop",
      "company": "cognition",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "windsurf-product",
      "summary": "The Windsurf Cascade documentation now redirects to Devin Desktop. Cascade combines code/chat modes and tool use; legacy branding is preserved for discoverability.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Primary paid usage, task success under a named evaluation, and reproducible hours-saved methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "openclaw",
      "name": "OpenClaw",
      "company": "openclaw",
      "stage": "Local runtime",
      "source": "openclaw-product",
      "summary": "Self-hosted agent runtime connecting models and tools. Runtime availability and this site’s configured use do not imply widespread adoption or completed research.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Primary paid usage, task success under a named evaluation, and reproducible hours-saved methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-ara",
      "name": "Ara 1.6T optical DSP",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Production",
      "source": "astra-marvell-optics-20260312",
      "summary": "Marvell reports volume shipments of its 3nm 1.6T DSP for pluggable optical links.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Track dated shipments and module qualification.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-ara-t",
      "name": "Ara T",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Sampling",
      "source": "astra-marvell-optics-20260312",
      "summary": "Transmit-retimed optics DSP with eight 200G lanes; sampling from Q1 2026.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify progression to volume supply.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-ara-x",
      "name": "Ara X",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Sampling",
      "source": "astra-marvell-optics-20260312",
      "summary": "1.6T optical DSP with added link-reliability features; sampling from Q1 2026.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek production and customer qualification evidence.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-petra",
      "name": "Petra gearbox",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Sampling",
      "source": "astra-marvell-optics-20260312",
      "summary": "Connects eight 100G lanes to four 200G lanes; sampling from Q1 2026.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify shipping status and supported modules.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-aquila-m",
      "name": "Aquila M",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Sampling",
      "source": "astra-marvell-optics-20260312",
      "summary": "O-band coherent-lite DSP with MACsec; sampling from Q1 2026.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Establish deployment and qualified link reach.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-bravera-sc6",
      "name": "Bravera SC6 PCIe 6.0 SSD controller",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Roadmap",
      "source": "astra-marvell-memory-20260804",
      "summary": "PCIe 6.0 SSD controller designed for inference storage and KV-cache movement; Q4 2026 sampling is a target.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Confirm samples, qualification and volume shipments separately.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-structera-x",
      "name": "Structera X CXL memory expansion",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-marvell-memory-20260804",
      "summary": "CXL memory expansion and pooling can increase access to memory independently of compute.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek deployed capacity and comparable workload measurements.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-photonic-memory",
      "name": "Photonic Fabric shared-memory architecture",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-marvell-memory-20260804",
      "summary": "Memory modules, NICs and chiplets form a proposed optical shared-memory tier across racks. The disclosed architecture supports up to 32 TB over up to 50 meters.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify availability and independently measured throughput; vendor performance claims are not accepted outcomes.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-teralynx-t100",
      "name": "Teralynx T100 Ethernet switch",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-marvell-t100-20260601",
      "summary": "102.4 Tbps switch design with copper and optical packaging options. The June announcement targeted sampling that quarter.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Obtain a dated sampling or production confirmation; distinguish switch bandwidth from delivered cluster performance.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-electra-colorz1600",
      "name": "Electra / COLORZ 1600",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Roadmap",
      "source": "astra-marvell-coherent-20260305",
      "summary": "2nm coherent DSP and 1.6T pluggable module for links between data centers; H2 2026 sampling was planned.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Confirm sampling and qualify reach at each data rate.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell-libra-colorz800",
      "name": "Libra / second-generation COLORZ 800",
      "company": "marvell",
      "stage": "Roadmap",
      "source": "astra-marvell-coherent-20260305",
      "summary": "800G coherent DSP and MACsec-enabled pluggable refresh; H2 2026 sampling was planned.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Keep this generation separate from earlier shipping COLORZ 800 products.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "astera-scorpio-x320",
      "name": "Scorpio X-Series 320-lane fabric switch",
      "company": "astera",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-astera-q2-20260804",
      "summary": "AI fabric switch demonstrated publicly in 2026; the August update expects a Q3 production ramp.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify the ramp and distinguish shipments from installed customer capacity.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "astera-taurus-32t",
      "name": "Taurus 3.2T signal conditioners",
      "company": "astera",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-astera-q2-20260804",
      "summary": "Retimers and redrivers for 224G Ethernet and UALink share an OCP-compatible footprint.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Confirm sampling, volume status and board qualification.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "astera-leo",
      "name": "Leo CXL memory controller",
      "company": "astera",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-astera-q2-20260804",
      "summary": "CXL controller demonstrated for memory tiering with AMD Instinct platforms.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek deployed memory capacity and workload-level benefit.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "broadcom-tomahawk6",
      "name": "Tomahawk 6 Ethernet switch",
      "company": "broadcom",
      "stage": "Production",
      "source": "astra-broadcom-th6-20260312",
      "summary": "Broadcom reports volume production of its 102.4 Tbps switch family in March 2026.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek installed port counts; nominal chip throughput is not network utilization.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "coherent-cpo-demonstrators",
      "name": "Coherent socketed CPO demonstrators",
      "company": "coherent",
      "stage": "Research preview",
      "source": "coherent-cpo",
      "summary": "Demonstrations cover silicon photonics with external lasers, VCSEL-based links and 400G-per-lane InP modulation.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Confirm qualification, packaging yields and production orders.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "lumentum-400g-eml-prototype",
      "name": "Lumentum 400G EML / 1.6T DR4 prototype",
      "company": "lumentum",
      "stage": "Research preview",
      "source": "astra-lumentum-ofc-20260317",
      "summary": "Four 400G differential lasers form a 1.6T DR4 prototype, with a future 3.2T module pathway.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify qualification and production; the prototype does not establish 3.2T shipments.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "credo-span-800g",
      "name": "ZeroFlap HiWire SPAN 800G AEC",
      "company": "credo",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-credo-span",
      "summary": "Active electrical copper cable for rack-to-rack connectivity, with documented reach up to seven meters.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek dated shipment evidence and operational link reliability data.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "microchip-xpressconnect-gen6",
      "name": "XpressConnect PCIe 6 / CXL 3.1 retimers",
      "company": "microchip",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-microchip-retimers-20260602",
      "summary": "Signal conditioning for high-speed connections between processors, accelerators and peripherals.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify qualification and production separately from the product announcement.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "samtec-sifly-cpx",
      "name": "Si-Fly HD CPX co-packaged interconnects",
      "company": "samtec",
      "stage": "Research preview",
      "source": "astra-samtec-cpx-20260324",
      "summary": "Demonstrated substrate-mounted sockets support copper and optical interconnects near the chip.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Obtain qualified production configurations; demonstration link rates do not measure installed throughput.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "seagate-mozaic4",
      "name": "Mozaic 4+ HAMR storage",
      "company": "seagate",
      "stage": "Production",
      "source": "astra-seagate-mozaic4-20260303",
      "summary": "Seagate reports volume shipments of drives up to 44 TB to two hyperscale providers. Its up-to-100-TB roadmap is separate and undated.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Track broader qualification, shipment volumes and dated roadmap milestones.",
      "layers": [
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "rambus-hbm4e",
      "name": "HBM4E memory controller IP",
      "company": "rambus",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-rambus-hbm4e-20260304",
      "summary": "Licensable controller design supporting up to 16 Gb/s per pin for HBM4/4E interfaces.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Confirm licensee silicon and qualified memory; IP specifications are not physical memory supply.",
      "layers": [
        "chips"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tel-prexa-sdp",
      "name": "Prexa SDP device prober",
      "company": "tokyo-electron",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-tel-prexa-20260416",
      "summary": "Tests singulated devices with thermal control before 2.5D/3D assembly, helping identify known-good components.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek installed tools and measured yield effects; tool introduction does not establish fab output.",
      "layers": [
        "chips"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "hitachi-800vdc",
      "name": "Hitachi Energy 800 VDC architecture work",
      "company": "hitachi-energy",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-hitachi-800v-20251013",
      "summary": "Collaboration addresses power delivery from the grid into higher-voltage AI data-center distribution.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek dated installations, grid-service energization and measured conversion efficiency.",
      "layers": [
        "energy",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ddn-rubin-data",
      "name": "DDN Rubin data and offload integration",
      "company": "ddn",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-ddn-rubin-20260105",
      "summary": "Combines data services with NVIDIA compute and BlueField offload for AI factories.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify shipping configurations and independently comparable workload outcomes.",
      "layers": [
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "netapp-afx",
      "name": "AFX disaggregated storage",
      "company": "netapp",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-netapp-afx",
      "summary": "ONTAP-based storage separates capacity and performance scaling for enterprise AI workloads.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Track dated deployments and workload evidence; maximum system specifications are not installed capacity.",
      "layers": [
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nvidia-vera-rubin",
      "name": "Vera Rubin AI factory platform",
      "company": "nvidia",
      "stage": "Production",
      "source": "astra-nvidia-rubin-20260531",
      "summary": "NVIDIA reports full production of its integrated compute, networking and rack platform.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Track delivered customer systems, energized capacity and comparable application outcomes.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nvidia-spectrumx-photonics",
      "name": "Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics",
      "company": "nvidia",
      "stage": "Production",
      "source": "astra-nvidia-rubin-20260531",
      "summary": "NVIDIA reports production of Ethernet networking that brings optical interconnects into the switch package.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Track installed systems, serviceability, optical yields and measured energy per delivered workload.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nvidia-bluefield4",
      "name": "BlueField-4 DPU",
      "company": "nvidia",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-nvidia-rubin-20260531",
      "summary": "Infrastructure processor in the Rubin platform provides networking, security and data-service offload.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify deployed functions and customer configurations; offload capability is not realized utilization.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "amd-helios-mi400",
      "name": "Helios / Instinct MI400 portfolio",
      "company": "amd",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-amd-q2-20260804",
      "summary": "AMD reports the Helios platform launch and MI400-family accelerators for AI systems.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Resolve shipping dates by SKU and distinguish customer commitments from installed compute.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cisco-silicon-one-g300",
      "name": "Silicon One G300",
      "company": "cisco",
      "stage": "Announced",
      "source": "astra-cisco-g300-20260210",
      "summary": "102.4 Tbps Ethernet switch silicon introduced with Cisco AI networking systems.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify production availability and comparable cluster-level performance.",
      "layers": [
        "chips",
        "infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "samsung-hbm4",
      "name": "Samsung HBM4",
      "company": "samsung",
      "stage": "Production",
      "source": "samsung-hbm4-shipping",
      "summary": "Samsung reports mass production and commercial shipments of HBM4 memory.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Track qualified output, yields and customer deployments; no volume is inferred from the announcement.",
      "layers": [
        "chips"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "samsung-hbm4e",
      "name": "Samsung HBM4E",
      "company": "samsung",
      "stage": "Sampling",
      "source": "astra-samsung-hbm4e-20260529",
      "summary": "Samsung reports shipping 12-layer HBM4E samples in May 2026.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Require a subsequent production disclosure before changing the stage.",
      "layers": [
        "chips"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ase-panel-310",
      "name": "ASE 310 mm panel-level packaging",
      "company": "ase",
      "stage": "Roadmap",
      "source": "astra-ase-panel-20260827",
      "summary": "FOCoS and FOCoS-Bridge panel processing targets Q1 2027 production in the August update.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify production start, yield and packages per month; panel geometry alone is not shipped capacity.",
      "layers": [
        "chips"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ai2-olmo31",
      "name": "Olmo 3.1 32B Think / Instruct",
      "company": "ai2",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-ai2-olmo3-20251120",
      "summary": "Ai2 documents its December 12 update with 32B reasoning and instruction checkpoints, alongside open training data, code and intermediate artifacts.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Check checkpoint-specific licenses and newer releases before making a latest-model claim.",
      "layers": [
        "models"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ai2-molmobot",
      "name": "MolmoBot research stack",
      "company": "ai2",
      "stage": "Research preview",
      "source": "astra-ai2-molmobot-20260311",
      "summary": "Robot manipulation policies and a simulation data pipeline support research across specified robot platforms; a March 27 update releases the code and data.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek independent real-world evaluations, hardware conditions and productive deployment evidence.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "huggingface-lerobot060",
      "name": "LeRobot 0.6",
      "company": "hugging-face",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-hf-lerobot060-20260707",
      "summary": "Open robot-learning tools integrate policies, simulation evaluations and human-corrected rollouts.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Distinguish library availability, each model license and measured deployment outcomes.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "weathernext-cyclones",
      "name": "WeatherNext Cyclones",
      "company": "alphabet",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-weathernext-cyclones-20260806",
      "summary": "DeepMind describes cyclone forecasting models, released research artifacts and ensemble forecasts for professional weather use. Its retrospective evaluation covers the 2023 and 2024 seasons.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Track reproducible lead-time and track-error results against named forecasting systems, plus independent operational verification. Do not translate model skill into lives or losses saved.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "isomorphic-isodde",
      "name": "Isomorphic Drug Design Engine (IsoDDE)",
      "company": "isomorphic",
      "stage": "Research preview",
      "source": "astra-isodde-20260210",
      "summary": "An internal drug-design system combines biomolecular structure, binding-affinity and binding-pocket prediction. Isomorphic reports improvements on specified generalization benchmarks relative to AlphaFold 3 and other methods.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek independent benchmark replication, access conditions and separately verified clinical milestones; benchmark accuracy does not establish successful medicines.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen3-coder-next",
      "name": "Qwen3-Coder-Next",
      "company": "alibaba",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-qwen-coder-next-20260228",
      "summary": "An open-weight coding-agent model uses verifiable tasks and executable training environments. The authors release base and instruction-tuned checkpoints.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Evaluate quality-adjusted cost, harness configuration and completed tasks; active parameter count alone does not measure serving cost.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral-medium35",
      "name": "Mistral Medium 3.5",
      "company": "mistral",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-mistral-changelog",
      "summary": "The April 28, 2026 changelog records a multimodal model for agentic and coding work, with adjustable reasoning and open weights under a Modified MIT license.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Retain the exact model license, version and evaluation harness; open weights do not imply every license is equivalent.",
      "layers": [
        "models"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral-vibe",
      "name": "Mistral Vibe: Work, Code and Chat",
      "company": "mistral",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-mistral-changelog",
      "summary": "The May 28, 2026 changelog records a unified agent interface with productivity workflows, developer tools and chat.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Seek paid usage and quality-controlled completed-work measurements; product availability is not measured productivity.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral-leanstral15",
      "name": "Leanstral 1.5",
      "company": "mistral",
      "stage": "Documented product",
      "source": "astra-mistral-leanstral15-20260702",
      "summary": "Apache-2.0 model weights support Lean 4 proof engineering with compiler feedback and formal verification. Reported benchmark results depend on attempt and token budgets.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "The official changelog schedules the Labs endpoint for retirement on September 30, 2026. Track hosted availability separately from released weights and independently verified proof results.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral-robostral-navigate",
      "name": "Robostral Navigate",
      "company": "mistral",
      "stage": "Research preview",
      "source": "astra-mistral-robostral",
      "summary": "A simulation-trained navigation model interprets camera images and language instructions to guide robots. The release presents held-out navigation benchmarks and demonstrations.",
      "observations": [],
      "gap": "Verify access terms, independent real-world reliability and productive deployments; simulated benchmark success is not a fleet productivity measure.",
      "layers": [
        "models",
        "applications"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "jobs_projects": [
    "terafab",
    "hyperion",
    "abilene",
    "tsmc-arizona-program",
    "colossus-one"
  ],
  "featured": {
    "energy": [
      "colossus-grid",
      "southaven-permanent-power"
    ],
    "chips": [
      "terafab",
      "tsmc-arizona-program",
      "tsmc-arizona-phase1",
      "tsmc-arizona-phase2",
      "tsmc-arizona-packaging",
      "hynix-west-lafayette",
      "amkor-arizona",
      "samsung-taylor",
      "intel-arizona",
      "intel-ohio"
    ],
    "infrastructure": [
      "colossus-one",
      "colossus-two",
      "colossus-stateline",
      "abilene",
      "new-carlisle",
      "hyperion",
      "fairwater-one",
      "stargate-new-mexico",
      "stargate-wisconsin",
      "stargate-michigan",
      "stargate-ohio",
      "stargate-shackelford",
      "stargate-milam"
    ],
    "models": [],
    "applications": [
      "waymo-one",
      "tesla-fsd",
      "tesla-robotaxi",
      "tesla-optimus",
      "agility-gxo"
    ]
  },
  "gaps": [
    "Later Colossus building capacity and informal names need property and commissioning evidence. Stateline Road is tracked by its regulator-listed address.",
    "Tesla Robotaxi city-level exposure, remote-assistance conditions and paid/test split remain unquantified. Current fleet sizes and later Waymo explicitly paid-trip updates need new evidence.",
    "Project cash paid, actual permanent hires and contractor FTEs remain sparse. Blank fields are not zero.",
    "Site IT load and facility power are different measurement bases; no source estimates are averaged."
  ],
  "capital": {
    "companies": [
      {
        "company": "aws",
        "name": "Amazon",
        "history_metric": "capital-cash-aws",
        "guidance_metric": "capital-guidance-aws",
        "year_end": "December 31"
      },
      {
        "company": "alphabet",
        "name": "Alphabet",
        "history_metric": "capital-cash-alphabet",
        "guidance_metric": "capital-guidance-alphabet",
        "year_end": "December 31"
      },
      {
        "company": "meta",
        "name": "Meta",
        "history_metric": "capital-cash-meta",
        "guidance_metric": "capital-guidance-meta",
        "year_end": "December 31"
      },
      {
        "company": "microsoft",
        "name": "Microsoft",
        "history_metric": "capital-cash-microsoft",
        "guidance_metric": "capital-guidance-microsoft",
        "year_end": "June 30"
      },
      {
        "company": "oracle",
        "name": "Oracle",
        "history_metric": "capital-cash-oracle",
        "guidance_metric": null,
        "year_end": "May 31"
      }
    ],
    "reviewed_at": "2026-09-09T06:30:40Z",
    "scope": "Simple sums use reported fiscal years ending in the labeled year, with all five companies required. Fiscal periods and cash/lease accounting differ. Totals describe this covered group, not calendar-year, AI-only or U.S. investment. Latest-bar sums mix explicitly labeled actuals and guidance and are not a uniform forecast.",
    "gaps": [
      "Oracle has a reported FY2026 result; no verified calendar-2026 guidance is included.",
      "Amazon and Alphabet July guidance is attributed to AP earnings reporting; obtain primary transcripts before changing its attribution.",
      "No complete 2030 company-by-company forecast is verified. The 2026–2029 analyst vintage is older than current guidance and is kept separate.",
      "J.P. Morgan August 2026 chart was not merged: its public caption labels U.S. spending and does not supply numeric company-by-company values."
    ],
    "archived_forecast": {
      "label": "September 2025 consensus · older forecast",
      "as_of": "2025-09",
      "source": "capital-apollo-2026-outlook",
      "companies": [
        {
          "company": "aws",
          "metric": "capital-consensus-2025-09-aws"
        },
        {
          "company": "alphabet",
          "metric": "capital-consensus-2025-09-alphabet"
        },
        {
          "company": "meta",
          "metric": "capital-consensus-2025-09-meta"
        },
        {
          "company": "microsoft",
          "metric": "capital-consensus-2025-09-microsoft"
        },
        {
          "company": "oracle",
          "metric": "capital-consensus-2025-09-oracle"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "capabilities": {
    "source": "epoch-eci-dataset",
    "method_source": "epoch-eci-method",
    "retrieved_at": "2026-09-09T17:26:13Z",
    "document_sha256": "1642d121d98c2eba6de7160cf8facfe2fdca03f47164dc96c7d6d7551a3d4eef",
    "confidence_level": 0.9,
    "rows": [
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        "released": "2026-09-03",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 166.57,
        "low": 163.34,
        "high": 171.7
      },
      {
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        "name": "Claude Fable 5.1",
        "released": "2026-09-01",
        "organization": "Anthropic",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 164.24,
        "low": 161.3,
        "high": 167.85
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-9ecc2f028b26d035",
        "name": "Claude Fable 5",
        "released": "2026-06-09",
        "organization": "Anthropic",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 163.41,
        "low": 160.68,
        "high": 167.1
      },
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        "name": "Claude Opus 5",
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        "organization": "Anthropic",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "low": 160.09,
        "high": 165.69
      },
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        "low": 159.3,
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        "low": 159.53,
        "high": 164.88
      },
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        "name": "GPT-5.6 Terra",
        "released": "2026-07-09",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "low": 156.64,
        "high": 161.84
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-34032a5f5f61c2c6",
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        "organization": "OpenAI",
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        "score": 159.14,
        "low": 156.91,
        "high": 161.87
      },
      {
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        "name": "GPT-5.4 Pro",
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        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 158.93,
        "low": 156.35,
        "high": 161.87
      },
      {
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        "name": "Claude Opus 4.8",
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        "score": 158.32,
        "low": 156.33,
        "high": 160.46
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-e344e2c60ab823cd",
        "name": "Kimi K3",
        "released": "2026-07-16",
        "organization": "Moonshot",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 157.64,
        "low": 155.01,
        "high": 160.58
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-592c7fb4d02bc23f",
        "name": "Gemini 3.7 Flash",
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        "organization": "Google DeepMind",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 157.44,
        "low": 155.52,
        "high": 160.08
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-0c7b277fbb155aef",
        "name": "GPT-5.4",
        "released": "2026-03-05",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "score": 156.86,
        "low": 155.05,
        "high": 158.79
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-60693ee662721f1e",
        "name": "Qwen 3.8 Max",
        "released": "2026-08-02",
        "organization": "Alibaba",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 156.62,
        "low": 154.45,
        "high": 158.45
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-a0b7ba5ab9aeed70",
        "name": "GPT-5.3 Codex",
        "released": "2026-02-05",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "score": 156.59,
        "low": 154.13,
        "high": 159.41
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-9a4cc8abbf9dffa0",
        "name": "Claude Opus 4.7",
        "released": "2026-04-16",
        "organization": "Anthropic",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 156.34,
        "low": 154.45,
        "high": 158.34
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-4c6d008b71aa4c18",
        "name": "Grok 4.6",
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        "organization": "xAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 156.34,
        "low": 154.57,
        "high": 158.47
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-b79585eddf431cd8",
        "name": "GPT-5.6 Luna",
        "released": "2026-07-09",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "score": 156.31,
        "low": 153.75,
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      },
      {
        "id": "eci-0bff8c9f9e68612f",
        "name": "Claude Sonnet 5",
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        "low": 153.39,
        "high": 158.5
      },
      {
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        "name": "Muse Spark 1.2",
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        "organization": "Meta AI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 155.49,
        "low": 153.76,
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      },
      {
        "id": "eci-323a016d45e3d66d",
        "name": "DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813",
        "released": "2026-08-13",
        "organization": "DeepSeek",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 155.44,
        "low": 153.65,
        "high": 157.54
      },
      {
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        "name": "Claude Opus 4.6",
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        "country": "United States of America",
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        "low": 153.51,
        "high": 157.14
      },
      {
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        "organization": "OpenAI",
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        "low": 153.04,
        "high": 157.88
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        "name": "GLM-5.3",
        "released": "2026-08-14",
        "organization": "Z.ai (Zhipu AI)",
        "country": "China",
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        "low": 153.15,
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      {
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        "low": 152.77,
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      },
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        "organization": "Google DeepMind",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "low": 152.76,
        "high": 156.78
      },
      {
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        "name": "Muse Spark 1.1",
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        "organization": "Meta AI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 154.64,
        "low": 152.26,
        "high": 157.96
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-296b0466aba910dd",
        "name": "DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731",
        "released": "2026-07-31",
        "organization": "DeepSeek",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 154.49,
        "low": 152.05,
        "high": 156.45
      },
      {
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        "name": "Gemini 3.6 Flash",
        "released": "2026-07-21",
        "organization": "Google DeepMind",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "low": 152.6,
        "high": 156.05
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-bedf505291d712b2",
        "name": "Grok 4.5",
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        "organization": "xAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "low": 152.32,
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      },
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        "organization": "Alibaba",
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        "low": 151.87,
        "high": 155.95
      },
      {
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        "organization": "OpenAI",
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        "low": 151.77,
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      },
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        "organization": "Google DeepMind",
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        "low": 151.16,
        "high": 154.96
      },
      {
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        "name": "Claude Sonnet 4.6",
        "released": "2026-02-17",
        "organization": "Anthropic",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "score": 152.29,
        "low": 149.78,
        "high": 154.35
      },
      {
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        "organization": "Meta AI",
        "country": "United States of America",
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        "low": 150.18,
        "high": 155.41
      },
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        "released": "2026-02-17",
        "organization": "xAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 152.03,
        "low": 149.08,
        "high": 154.45
      },
      {
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        "name": "GLM-5.2",
        "released": "2026-06-16",
        "organization": "Z.ai (Zhipu AI)",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 151.88,
        "low": 150.11,
        "high": 153.88
      },
      {
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        "name": "Gemini 3 Flash",
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        "organization": "Google DeepMind",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 151.84,
        "low": 150.5,
        "high": 153.45
      },
      {
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        "name": "GLM-5.3-Flash",
        "released": "2026-08-20",
        "organization": "Z.ai (Zhipu AI)",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 151.45,
        "low": 148.96,
        "high": 153.42
      },
      {
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        "name": "Kimi K2.6",
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        "organization": "Moonshot",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 151.01,
        "low": 149.07,
        "high": 152.65
      },
      {
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        "name": "GPT-5 Pro",
        "released": "2025-10-07",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 150.28,
        "low": 148.77,
        "high": 152.52
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-d1b8568a0e79af74",
        "name": "Inkling-Small",
        "released": "2026-07-15",
        "organization": "Thinking Machines",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 150.17,
        "low": 147.44,
        "high": 151.96
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-aeffeace2acb935c",
        "name": "Claude Opus 4.5",
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        "organization": "Anthropic",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 150.11,
        "low": 148.0,
        "high": 152.85
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-31068fc70d9d3f02",
        "name": "Kimi K2.7 Code",
        "released": "2026-06-12",
        "organization": "Moonshot",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 150.1,
        "low": 148.39,
        "high": 151.76
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-9dc79002375c3984",
        "name": "GPT-5",
        "released": "2025-08-07",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 150.0,
        "low": null,
        "high": null
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-5b69fde1cce50388",
        "name": "GLM-5.1",
        "released": "2026-04-07",
        "organization": "Z.ai (Zhipu AI)",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 149.73,
        "low": 147.65,
        "high": 151.48
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-c39202cfc8581c76",
        "name": "GPT-5.1",
        "released": "2025-11-13",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 149.65,
        "low": 148.34,
        "high": 151.05
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-e583a10858459587",
        "name": "Qwen 3.6 Max (Preview)",
        "released": "2026-04-20",
        "organization": "Alibaba",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Other",
        "score": 149.3,
        "low": 147.55,
        "high": 152.27
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-5a6cd58d35b4e91d",
        "name": "Grok 4.3 Beta",
        "released": "2026-04-17",
        "organization": "xAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 149.18,
        "low": 147.59,
        "high": 150.59
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-d13f4ddd46a63f0e",
        "name": "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
        "released": "2026-04-24",
        "organization": "DeepSeek",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 149.1,
        "low": 147.29,
        "high": 150.44
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-f8bb895ca42da9ac",
        "name": "GPT-5.4 Mini",
        "released": "2026-03-17",
        "organization": "OpenAI",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Closed weights",
        "score": 148.98,
        "low": 147.08,
        "high": 150.7
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-cf223bf5394b4dfe",
        "name": "Inkling",
        "released": "2026-07-15",
        "organization": "Thinking Machines",
        "country": "United States of America",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 148.64,
        "low": 145.93,
        "high": 150.5
      },
      {
        "id": "eci-7455023b068e333c",
        "name": "Kimi K2.5",
        "released": "2026-01-27",
        "organization": "Moonshot",
        "country": "China",
        "access": "Open weights",
        "score": 148.03,
        "low": 146.24,
        "high": 149.09
      },
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}
